This graph shows the percentage of Party Vote that each of the main parties have got since 1999 (When Lianne first won) in Christchurch East. I wouldn’t have said that it was a safe seat… a view that was shared over at The Standard.

Chch East Party Vote

 For John Key to say that don’t have much chance isn’t really the case: if the National Party could find a strong candidate that could replicate their share of the party vote, then they should be the favourites for this. The National party vote at the last election was more than Labour and the Greens combined. All the more reason for the Labour Party to hold an open, competitive selection process to ensure that we get the best possible candidate. 

Interesting facts from the data … Tte large “other” vote in 1999 is mainly for the Alliance. Also, in 2005, Lianne beat Kyle Chapman for the seat by a slim margin of 20,000 votes…