So hand proposed boundary changes are now out, and there our major moves in Christchurch. Christchurch East has lost the most people, and so needs the most people added. The suburbs being added are Shirley, Mairehau and Bromely – ie some of the most Labour areas in Christchurch Central and Port Hills, which will make those two seats very hard for Labour to win. Port Hills loses Sydenham, Waltham and Beckenham to Central, in a move that makes little sense from a community or geographic point of view. Port Hills then gains Halswell, Westmorland and Akaroa, which are very blue areas. Beyond Ruth Dyson’s personal appeal, this will be a very hard seat for Labour to keep hold of.
Wigram and Selwyn have seen a lot of growth, and so not too many changes. Moving Hei Hei from Wigram to Selwyn seems to be a move that needlessly breaks up communities. Ilam is the only electorate that doesn’t change, which is difficult, considering every other electorate is moving significantly around it. As there is such a major redraw in all the other electorates, it would make sense if Ilam’s boundaries were on the table too. Waimakariri may lose Redwood, one of the urban centres of Labour vote. This looks like becoming a more rural, rather than urban electorate, which may mean that National can transition from Kate Wilkinson to someone new. All in all, these are pretty dire boundary changes for the left.